Cup of Election Predictions
Since February I have been predicting a Democratic blow out. However, I am a Democrat. And a Mets fan. And a Jets fan. Let’s just say optimism isn’t my thing. So as we approach the moment of reckoning, I’m confident–but totally scared shitless. One similarly-minded friend of mine got mad at me because I kept cautioning him not to get too excited a week out. Of course I sketched every scenario that McCain could win. So that must have irritated him. (I did, however, point out that during the brief moment of Palin hype I wrote him that Mondale was actually up against Reagan the week after he announced Ferraro. He on the other hand totally panicked.)
And with no more hype, my predictions from 12,000 miles away.
States that will go to McCain (toss-ups only)
- West Virginia
- Georgia
- Missouri
- Montana (could be close)
- The Dakotas
- Indiana
States that will go to Obama
- Pennsylvania
- Virginia
- Ohio
- Florida
- North Carolina
- New Mexico
- Nevada
- Colorado
- Iowa
- New Hampshire
Total electoral count: 352-185
State that I really think Obama will win…but totally freaks me out because the numbers are nuts and they elected a wrestler: Minnesota. Don’t be surprised if weird stuff happens there.
Don’t be shocked if: Obama wins Arizona. I’m not even putting it in the afforementioned toss-ups, but I’m just saying.
Bizzaro thing that just might happen: Nebraska uses district by district electoral college delegates. Obama could win one in Omaha.
“Vulnerables” who are going to win easily: Mitch McConnell (KY) and Chambliss (GA)
One Democrat who will fall (and no one will shed a tear): Murtha (PA). He’s been exposed as a real creep.
One race I would never try to predict: Al Franken and Norm Coleman. This is the all-time weirdest race. i have no idea what to make of this. Plus a former Senator is in the race as a third party candidate. He’s the guy whom Jesse Ventura appointed to serve after Paul Wellstone died. Seriously, which is a weirder voting state, Florida or Minnesota?
Senator I will be happy to see go: Elizabeth Dole. Yuck.
Most exciting “down-ticket” devopment: Two new senators named Udall will be elected. They are in different states, and apparently not related. [and will both win in the same year.] What are the odds of that?
And that’s the wrap-up from the man who gets every prediction right. After all, I told you it would be Obama-Warner vs. McCain-Pawlenty before anyone else did.
{Update}-All of the states went as called, minus Indiana. The Omaha district did go to Obama. Dole lost, McConnell won, and Chambliss was way ahead, although he failed to hit 50 percent, meaning there will be a run-off election. Weird stuff happened in the Franken-Coleman race (it’s down to a 200-vote differential at last count). The one call that was totally off? Murtha. I thought he’s lose because he’s a dumb jerk. He won by 18 points.
尼克 responds:
Posted: November 5th, 2008 at 3:06 am →
The Udalls? They are cousins I thought. The one in Colorado is just as big of a creep as his Republican opponent, so I voted 3rd party on that race.
Josh responds:
Posted: November 5th, 2008 at 5:27 am →
Third party, eh? Well, if it’s brought us Jesse Ventura, George Wallace, Ralph Nader and Ross Perot, it can’t be all bad right?
Scott responds:
Posted: November 5th, 2008 at 9:38 am →
Well, since it is so far into the voting, I am not going to make any predictions. However, I think Obama will pull Missouri, and I think the electoral tally will be closer.
Now, being a conspiricy theorist of sorts, let me take this down a different path. So, Obama wins. The Supreme Court has decided to take a look at Obama’s citizenship (or lack thereof): and “the defendants “are required to respond to the Writ of Certiorari” by Dec. 1.” There are some concerns about whether or not he is a natural born citizen. I have seen where some say he was born in Africa (there supposedly is a video of his grandmother saying she was there at his birth in Kenya, but that doesn’t mean it is true, maybe she is senile) and had the birth recorded in Hawaii. There is the fake certificate that says he was born in Hawaii, but he has never released his real one. And, if he was born in Hawaii, that doesn’t mean he is a natural born citizen because of his father’s status and some obscure residency requirements (something like his mother had to reside in the States for some consecutive time period (I don’t remember exactly, and I am too lazy to go look for it).
So, what happens if he wins, but then is ruled ineligible? Does Biden get it, and then gets to choose the VP? Personally, I like this idea (I really like Biden). Or, do they have some stupid seperate election? How the heck would you do that? Would they have to do another Democratic Primary? The worst thing I can think of would be for Hillary to somehow manage to re-emerge. Anyway, something to think about.
Regardless of who wins, I hope they are just what the U.S. needs, I hope they do a great job, and I will support them (unless it is H.R.C.).
Scott
p.s. sorry if this double posts, as my freakin browser is acting all weird.
Josh responds:
Posted: November 5th, 2008 at 2:33 pm →
Don’t worry Scott, we welcome nonesense nutjob theories here.
Scott responds:
Posted: November 5th, 2008 at 3:20 pm →
HA! Listening to coasttocoastam.com right now! Wow, your electoral prediction looks close. MO still not called, but it looks like you were right there as well. As I look at the overload of data, two things stand out.
1) How does he get less than 55% of the popular vote? So much more money, energized base, and national disdain for Bush/Cheney and the Republicans. I guess the majority of people can’t move beyond their entrenched political preferences.
2) How does Cynthia McKinney get more votes than Ron Paul? Really?
I am happy with the Obama win and I hope he is exactly what the U.S. needs. I am wondering if he is going to be partisan with his party holding both chambers, or will he be a reconciler (which will surely anger the far left). Now, if he would only release the UFO files.
Scott
Michael responds:
Posted: November 7th, 2008 at 3:23 am →
Thanks for showing love to Minnesota. Not sure why you doubted the Obama vote, but nice one on the Coleman/Franken pick’em. I’m not sure that recount battles ever turn out well for the individual trailing going in, but it’ll be interesting to see how many challenged, uncounted and miscounted ballots there are as a test of electronic vote counting.
I think same day voter registration reduces the likelihood of any ballot roll problems, so Norm will keep his seat.