Pollution Worsens Following Traffic Restrictions (a lot)
A funny thing happened after the traffic restrictions, designed to reduce air pollution, went into effect: air quality got much worse. In addition to the obvious negative change in visibility, even the government’s own numbers (which many suspect are manipulated anyway) back it up. Before July 20, when the restrictions went into effect, there were four days in July during which the index (which is on a 500 point scale) reached 89. Of the seven days available on the government’s website since then, five have been over the mark, with four reaching the scary 100 mark (that only happened twice in the previous 19 days). Incidentally, while anything below 100 is considered a “blue sky” day, in Paris 100 represents 250% the acceptable level of pollution.
And if you’re hoping for a sudden reversal of fortunes based on the policy, the numbers give no indication that the restrictions will have any positive impact whatsoever. For the first 20 days of the month, the air registered a respectable average of 65. That would be bad in NYC, but here it’s very good.
Last seven days? They have averaged an appalling 96, and that’s not counting today, which may end up being the worst yet. None of this bodes particularly well for the Olympics, which were awarded to the city on the theory that Beijing would be able to fix its air pollution problem in the seven years it had to prepare. Unfortunately the IOC (which appears to be run much like the mafia) had numerous opportunities along the way to wonder if any of these half-measures would work.
Back in November I argued, tongue in cheek, that Beijing should have to forfeit the Olympics for not bothering to do anything they had promised. Now it doesn’t look like such a dumb argument, although obviously they could not have moved the Games on short notice from a logistical stand point.
However, the IOC, and the Beijing government for that matter, might have had an indication that the traffic policy does not produce positive effects in the short-term based on last year’s results. Back then, on the old site, I mentioned how measurably ineffective the restrictions had been:
[Excluding] August 16th, the day before the experiment started, every single day in the previous week had lower pollution than any day of the test. In fact, from the beginning of August until the 17th, the average pollution rating was 79.5, well below the 93.5 during those four days…
For the entire month there were only five days as bad as the average of the four day period described [here] as having “considerably reduced pollution.”
So while it’s true that the jump in pollution this year was worse than last year, and it is very unlikely that the restrictions caused the problem either year, it is equally true that there were clear markers along the road that there should have been no reason to expect the policy to have any short-term positive impact.
Never fear, though, the government is insisting that they are winning the battle, despite their own data to the contrary. Here is what the State Environmental Protection Agency has to say on the matter:
Beijing is confident to meet its air quality commitment by maintaining clean air during the upcoming Olympics, the Olympics organizers said on Saturday.
Beijing has pledged three commitments in terms of the air quality, namely, monitoring everyday the four major pollutants of sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and inhalable particulates, striving for improving air quality throughout the year, and maintaining good air quality during Olympics, said Du Shaozhong, deputy director with the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau…
Beijing took 300,000 high-emission cars off its roads since early July. From July 20, private cars have been stopped on alternate days according to their odd or even number license plates in a bid to improve air quality and ease traffic congestion. The vehicle restrictions have resulted in 20 percent drop of major air pollutants, according to Du.
Not sure what the calculation of 20 percent is based on, but it looks like they are comparing year on year as the first 20 days of July last year averaged 86 before jumping to a ridiculous 116 average for the next eight days. So, um, great, they lowered the numbers from the worst week of last summer. But keep in mind that most of that gain was in the first three weeks of July this year, when the regulations were only partially in effect. If you instead compare this last week with the first three weeks from last July, there is a significant increase in air toxins, amounting to about 10 percent.
So they can spin things any way they want, but if the air looks like this in two weeks, there will be a PR disaster. And the government and IOC will have no one to blame but themselves.
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Mike responds:
Posted: July 28th, 2008 at 11:49 pm →
Good post. The seems worse now than when I was here last year. Of course it is a different season, but the measures they have tried to put in place have had no affect. I think they kept constructing new non-Olympic related buildings for too long.
http://2008gamesbeijing.com/beijings-new-cctv-tower/
chriswaugh_bj responds:
Posted: July 29th, 2008 at 11:20 am →
Come on Josh, let’s be fair and look at the effect the weather has had on air quality. Now, I’m not denying the shitty air quality of the last week at all, but it seems to me that the amount of pollution emitted from internal combustion engines could not possibly have increased with the restrictions unless pissed off drivers are leaving their engines running on days they’re not allowed to drive, and I have seen no evidence of that. One other thing that happened on July 20 was a mass of still, humid air settling over the city. This happens often in the summer- it is the wet season, remember. It also seems to trap the pollution. So although less pollution was being emitted, there was no wind or rain to clear it out, it was trapped in the city where it built up, resulting in yesterday’s thick soup of nastiness.
Funny how the air is so much clearer this morning than it was yesterday now that we finally have a decent breeze, light rain and a looming thunder storm…. I’ll be very curious to see what today’s API is.
So the traffic restrictions are good and can only reduce emissions, but whether that translates into better air depends on several factors, one of which is the weather gods’ cooperation, and not even the CCP has much influence over them.
Yokie Kuma responds:
Posted: July 29th, 2008 at 11:33 am →
Big fans. Huge, monstrous, big fans. Blow out the bad air and suck in the good air from the clean neighboring towns. Such as ….. oh yeah. That won’t work.
Josh responds:
Posted: July 29th, 2008 at 11:47 am →
@Chris,
Of course the restrictions don’t make it WORSE, but they really screwed up when they decided it would make it better anytime soon.
nanheyangrouchuan responds:
Posted: July 29th, 2008 at 12:53 pm →
No one is really discussing the effect that pollution from western and eastern provinces has on Beijing’s air. Fronts moving from the west (along with the sand storms) will pick up any and all pollution from northwestern E. Turkestan all the way to the 6th ring road and any winds coming off of the ocean can push pollution in from Heilongjiang province. Any coal mines/seam fires, traffic conjestion, power generation (which Beijing is ramping up in its satellite cities and other provinces to make sure there are no brown outs during the Nazi Games, so there is a big source of pollution) and heavy industry that is even a few hundred miles away can accumulate as it travels over other sources.
Nick responds:
Posted: July 29th, 2008 at 1:02 pm →
Ofcourse its highly likely that emissions from outside Beijing are undermining their efforts, no matter how nobel they are. China is still China where I live.
chriswaugh_bj responds:
Posted: July 30th, 2008 at 8:00 am →
Josh: My point was simply that with such uncooperative weather it really was unreasonable to expect instant results. We’ll see how things go now that yesterday’s wind and rain have cleared things up a bit.
Nanheyangrouchuan: You have one good point, and I have seen southerly or soueasterly winds bring in more airborne shit from Tianjin, Langfang and Baoding (and doubtless places further afield- I imagine the Shengli Oilfield makes a fairly good sized contribution), but very often a northerly or norwester does actually clean the air out a lot, as counter-intuitive as that may seem considering such a wind sweeps over Baotou, Hohhot, Datong and Zhangjiakou before hitting Beijing. And it’s a pretty funny ocean breeze that brings pollution in from Heilongjiang. And the Nazi Games happened in 1936. No connection to Beijing.
nanheyangrouchuan responds:
Posted: July 31st, 2008 at 1:03 am →
@ Chris
“but very often a northerly or norwester does actually clean the air out a lot,”
If it is the prevailing wind, the same current clears out Shanghai during the fall and spring equinox for a couple of weeks. But if the prevailing current is countered by other currents and isn’t strong enough to overcome the others, you’d have fairly stable air.
The Nazi Olympics are being repeated, I’m sure you’ve read a few Chinese articles about Jewish control of the global banking system.
Bad China.
chriswaugh_bj responds:
Posted: July 31st, 2008 at 12:19 pm →
Nanhe, no I have never read any such article, but then again, banking doesn’t really interest me. Care to provide us with any examples, or should we assume that this is just another of your baseless allegations? In fact, I’ve never heard any Chinese person say anything of the sort and have never met a Chinese anti-Semite (I assume that is your allegation). Just for the record: The only person I have ever heard talk about the Jewish control of the global banking system is a white American, from Ohio, ex-Navy SEAL, Gulf War vet.
big jas responds:
Posted: August 3rd, 2008 at 6:42 pm →
hi josh and friends - any comments on the weather at the moment. The papers / media outside of china are full of reports about how clean it is there now with conflicting information on whether or not it’s because of the anti pollution measures or because it rained.
Josh responds:
Posted: August 4th, 2008 at 7:18 am →
Yeah, nice weather. Just like it was the week before the regulations went into effect. It’s more luck than control. You can’t have terrible policies for 20 years and good ones for 15 days and expect it to work.
And this morning proves that. Welcome back soup.