The Race for the GOP Vice Presidency
A couple of months back I speculated on whom each party might choose as the vice president. And now, with the Democratic race finally over, it is time to take another look.
Starting on the GOP side, there are a few people that are thought to be on the short list. I rank them here in reverse of of strength in my view:
5.Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana. He’s conservative, reasonably charismatic and the base likes him. He was also born in the 1970s. That’s right, he’s 36 (birthday is tomorrow. Happy birthday big boy!). Oh, also, he used to be a Hindu. I don’t think that’s going to help with conservative voters who think Obama is a church-going Muslim.
Since McCain’s best shot is saying things like this, “For a young man with very little experience, [Obama's] done very well,” a guy who has been in the governor’s mansion for just under five months might not be the best choice.
Odds McCain picks him: 5%. Odds they would win: <5%.
4. Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Senator from Texas. She makes some sense in that McCain thinks he can disaffected female Hillary supporters, but otherwise is somewhat illogical. She is middle of the road on abortion, which would no doubt infuriate the GOP base, further reducing turnout. She’s 64, which wouldn’t be a problem if John McCain were a few years younger. But do the Republicans really want to have the average age on the ticket be 68, running against two dems that average about 50? Plus, she doesn’t help with any state. If McCain can’t win Texas without her, he’s in real trouble.
Odds that he picks her: 10%. Odds that ticket could win: slim, unless women get really excited about her, which seems unlikely.
3. Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts. Well, the base actually likes this guy, which is crazy considering how liberal he was until a few months years ago. McCain, however, thinks he’s a slick fraud, and he’s right. The guy can’t remember what position he has from day to day.
On the other hand, he won huge points by bowing out early and profusely praising McCain. He never had the chance that Hillary had to get the nomination, so it was a lot easier for him to take the high road early, but this is the single biggest reason why Mitt could be the VP and Hillary will not be. He’s also considered strong on the economy, a weak point for McCain, to put it politely. Oh, and he’s rich.
Odds McCain picks him: 15%. Odds they would win: 20%.
2. Charlie Crist, governor of Florida. This makes a lot of sense, especially when I discovered he’s more conservative than I thought. I had been under the impression that he was fairly liberal, but he’s not really. People still seem to think he’s not the pick, but he would ensure McCain a Florida victory and he hits the sweet spot in a lot of areas.
He’s 51, which gives him just the right look (his silvery hair gives him a little more gravitas). He’s the popular governor of a big state. And he’s not named Bush (although Jeb jump-started his career). I suspect he’s got the inside track, but again, if McCain has to battle for Florida, he’s got no shot anyway.
Odds McCain picks him: 25%. Odds they would win: 35%
1. Tim Pawlenty, governor of Minnesota. If I were McCain, I would pick Pawlenty. I would also be very old.
Pawlenty comes from the state that has voted Democratic in more consecutive presidential elections than any other, owing to the fact that it is the only one that Mondale won in 1984 (when Bobby Jindal was 13. Couldn’t help myself.) However, it’s never been super-blue, and if there is one state that McCain could potentially pick off, Minnesota is the one. Pawlenty is young (47), but old enough that he doesn’t look ridiculous next to McCain. He has never won more than 47% of the state vote, but the combination of a Minnesota convention and a Minnesotan VP would probably swing the state, something no other candidate can say. Odds McCain picks him: 20%. Odds they could win: 40%.
Dark horse: Joe “the weasel” Lieberman. This guy is such a skunk it makes me ill. Gore’s two biggest blunders were not sending Clinton to campaign in Appalachia, and picking this passionless Benedict Arnold for the VP. I cannot think of a less inspired decision. If McCain picks him, he wins Florida. Old Jews like Lieberman. The great irony is that he couldn’t bring Florida home for Gore.
However, this guy is completely pro-choice, and fairly liberal on some other social issues. As much as I hate Lieberman, he would make things really interesting. I have no idea how this would play out. Would it be the unity ticket? Would the GOP revolt? Would the US invade Iran before or after all of the votes were counted?
He’s also the oldest guy on this list (66), meaning that the odds-on favorite for a McCain-Lieberman bumping sticker would be “Grumpy Old Men.” Odds McCain picks him: 3%. Odds they win: 10%. This would be the ultimate hail-Mary because the right wing would be irate. And the left wing. Come to think of it, this would probably bring on a civil war.
The field. The odds McCain picks someone else would be about 22%. It’s almost impossible to guess these things, so you always have to give the field pretty good odds. Other possible candidates: Jeb Bush (if he had a different last name), Rudy Giuliani (I kid because he’s a border-line fascist), George Pataki, Huckabee (possible. Possibly crazy), Lindsay Graham (makes some sense. In fact this makes some much sense he should be above Bobby “the kid” Jindal, but it’s too late), Matt Blunt (gov, Missouri), Mark Sanford (gov, SC) and Fred Thompson (note to John McCain: Please pick Fred Thompson. Seriously.)
Out of the main contenders, the only two that could cause real problems would be Crist or Pawlenty, and maybe Kay Bailey if she could connect with women voters.
Tomorrow, the Democrats.
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Glen responds:
Posted: June 9th, 2008 at 9:42 pm →
Another name that has emerged is U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson of New Mexico. She just lost a Senate primary for not being “conservative” enough. She’s young (in her early 40’s) and is bright. She is really, really good at debating. The idea is that she would help balance the ticket because of her gender and age. I see her biggest drawback is that she’s really strong on defense issues and McCain already has that area nailed down. Keep your eye on her. I would NOT be surprised if McCain chooses a woman as VP in order to shock the establishment since Clinton had been running for the Dems.
Matthew Stinson responds:
Posted: June 9th, 2008 at 11:20 pm →
Crist is actually a moderate by GOP standards. The bigger problem for him is that he’d be smeared as a closeted homosexual. Too much man-tan.
Pawlenty is a good choice, though he might decline for the sake of avoiding the “running mate’s curse” if McCain loses.