Will the Olympics Destroy China?
The great coming out party is how the Olympics are usually described. The Beijing Games were supposed to show that China has truly arrived on the international scene. Strong, economically powerful, militarily able and fully confident. As the last few months have shown, China perhaps is not as far along as the world once thought.
There is no doubt that the Chinese economy has made a stunning jump over the last three decades. And yet…and yet China seems strangely weak and vulnerable is a way that some always knew, but is now becoming more apparent to an international audience. Huge swaths of China’s land are home to ethnic minorities (T1betans and U1ghurs) who feel little allegiance to their official country at best, and deep resentment at worst. China has long feared independence movements, but the bright spotlight of the Games has emboldened disaffected groups to rise up, knowing that whatever move the country makes will be more restrained with so many eyes on the country.
But what really seems to be stunning for the Chinese Government, and perhaps more importantly its population, is how much many people in the West detest the official policies–not only on T1bet–but also on human rights and policy in Africa. Clearly this shock comes from misconceptions formed as a result of China’s closed media policies where opinions in the press, particularly the Chinese language media, are essentially uniform. When domestic outlets blanket the news with cries that the Western media is biased and make overtures to nationalist sentiments, people are more than happy to believe, because no one wants to think their government does bad things.
China’s fragility and lack of confidence, which have so clearly come on display in recent weeks and months directly, come from the closed nature of its political discussion. It is almost as if China has been living in a complete sterilized environment, and now the slightest germ–or criticism in this case–has left it incapacitated, and grasping at nationalism as the antibiotic.
In a more politically developed country, political dissent and international criticism do not cause crisis. There has been enormous internal and external criticism of America’s Iraq policy, and yet the country is not in long-term crisis with regard to legitimacy. Discussion takes place, and soon the old leadership will be swept out, fully disgraced. Yet in China, there is such widespread fear of illegitimacy, often on the part of the leaders themselves, that criticism is difficult to accept.
All of this has become clear with Olympics approaching. Western China was to be opened to tourists and journalists alike, encouraged with the development of the Lhasa train line. And yet as the Games have neared the opposite has occurred: T1bet is now off limits to both groups, and the result is embarrassment and deep concern.
The way things are going with the Olympic Torch Relay, Chinese and Olympic officials are nearly panicked that the proceedings will devolve into a political disaster. Even officials at the IOC, which has been loathe to make the Games political have had to weigh in. This from the Times:
The president of the Olympic committee, Jacques Rogge, called on the authorities in Beijing to respect their “moral engagement” to improve human rights in the months leading up to the games and to provide the news media with greater access to the country. He also described the protests that have dogged the international Olympics torch relay as a “crisis” for the organization.
Though Mr. Rogge predicted the Games would still be a success, his comments were a sharp departure from previous statements in which he avoided any mention of politics. Beijing quickly rejected his remarks and said they amounted to meddling in its internal affairs.
All of these protests are likely to harden China’s stance, and potentially the government’s standing among a population highly sensitive to criticism of the country. Much of this sentiment stems from the fact that in non-democratic China the government has effectively tied itself to the people. In other words, many in China have a difficult time differentiating criticism of the country’s official policies, with insults to the population or culture.
And what if China’s leaders decide that the best way to handle the actual Games is to have such a huge police and military presence that reporters and tourists reconfirm their pre-existing notions of the country’s police state? It will be a major setback, and virtual disaster.
There is a real chance that the Olympics will not be a coming out party, but instead force China back into its shell.
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John Guise responds:
Posted: April 11th, 2008 at 11:07 am →
A good summary of what’s going on and what could happen though a tad on the cynical side.
J.
Pappi responds:
Posted: April 11th, 2008 at 11:34 am →
Cynical is a synonym for realistic.
China Law Blog responds:
Posted: April 11th, 2008 at 10:55 pm →
Great post, though I would say the odds of this worst case scenario are less than 50 percent.
Larry responds:
Posted: April 11th, 2008 at 11:45 pm →
The Chinese response to Jacques Rogge’s call for respect of “moral engagement” is even more telling. It really sets the expectation in the future when organizations are making “agreements”, “contracts”, “understanding”… with China.
Cathy responds:
Posted: April 12th, 2008 at 3:58 am →
Your summary of the problems with the Chinese side is right on mark. You mention that “many in China have a difficult time differentiating criticism of the country’s official policies, with insults to the population or culture.” I agree. But it seems to me, in this instance, the protestors are not differentiating the Chinese people and the Chinese government in their criticism of the Beijing Olympics. The CCP obviously has its own agenda. But the Chinese people view it more as an opportunity for them to showcase their hospitality, culture and achievements — this is their time in the sun. But the protestors are entirely ignoring the Chinese people’s view on the Olympics (they are brainwashed so no need to listen) and have criticized the Beijing Olympics indiscriminately — i.e. Genocide Olympics. So I don’t think in this particular instance, it is entirely the Chinese people’s inability to distinguish criticism of CCP policies and insults on population or culture that is at fault. The complete breakdown in communications between the Chinese people and the West is probably due in part to CCP indoctrination but also due in part to the protestors’ oversimplification of the situation and the apparent lack of respect for the view of the Chinese people.
statusq responds:
Posted: April 12th, 2008 at 8:59 am →
“lack of respect for the view of the Chinese people”?
i think that’s the last of any protester’s concerns when they’re debating about T1betan’s right to free will or Darfer policies.
Chinese people need to toughen up, and quit being so oversensitive. If the country’s going to enter a modern world w/ modern media you gotta get used to words flying.
People criticize american foreign policy all the time, including americans. i guess that’s a big difference: the Chinese population is having trouble separating themselves from the government stance. (no surprises there).
Josh responds:
Posted: April 12th, 2008 at 10:30 am →
@CLB
Worst case scenario is under 50%? I hope so! I’d put it fairly low that armed soldiers will be patrolling the streets, but it’s not impossible.
@statusq
Isn’t is ironic that in a country where people have no say over their own government, they are the most defensive about the positions it takes?
Janus responds:
Posted: April 12th, 2008 at 2:08 pm →
Ultimately, if the Chinese want to be taken as a country that has “truly arrived,” they will have to learn to separate criticism of a government policy from some imagined deep hostility to the Chinese nation, its culture, and its people.
God help us if Americans’ uniform interpretation of Iraq protests was that the protestors hate Americans, hate white people, and want to “harm” them.
nanheyangrouchuan responds:
Posted: April 12th, 2008 at 2:47 pm →
For the Chinese living in China, they can be excused for their thin skin and ignorance.
For those Chinese living abroad, they can see both sides of the story and yet take a totally one sided position that regard’s Beijing as almightly law written in blood. Their opinion counts for nothing. Why should we respect their opinion when they won’t respect the opinions of Tibetans and Uyghurs (and Mongolians and Taiwanese, etc)?
The hard and fast facts are that Chinese people need to suck it up and realize that they and their culture are no more special or above anyone elses’.
China is a primitive and dirty country and the sooner that Chinese realize this the sooner they can focus on fixing their own country and stop blaming everyone else for China’s failings.
Cathy responds:
Posted: April 13th, 2008 at 1:14 am →
@statusq,
Yes, from our perspective, the Chinese are overly sensitive. But again, my point is, this is their Olympics first and foremost, not the Chinese government’s. If anything, we should take it back from the Chinese government, and make it the people’s Olympics. It would’ve been much more effective if the Tibet protestors make their point but also support the Chinese people at the same time. I would want 1.3 billion people on my side. Further, we do not like it that the Chinese government doesn’t respect the opinion of the Tibetans and Taiwanese, so all the more reason we should not stoop to their level. Anyway, having dealt with the Chinese, all I have to say is this strategy is not going to work, the Tibetan protestors are winning the battle but losing the war.
Oh yeah, actually we Americans could be pretty sensitive too. There was an Absolut vodka ad which depicted a map with California and the southwestern states being part of Mexico. Haha, you should’ve seen the outrage and indignation from Americans and it was only a vodka ad! So part of the Chinese reaction doesn’t seem to be particularly Chinese or unusual at all.