Cup of Cha
This is China

If you want to realize just how scary the neocons are, then you might want to check out John Bolton’s piece in the LA Times in which he argues that the way to ensure peace in East Asia is for the US to recognize Taiwan diplomatically. He seems to think this would be the best way to avoid a war, as if this somehow currently on the horizon in Asia, or as if this move would not scare the crap out of everyone. Here’s what the former US ambassador to the UN (appointed, not confirmed) had to say:

For the United States, the clearest way of expressing that support is to give full diplomatic recognition to the state that already exists and that the Ta1wanese overwhelmingly wish to preserve. Maintaining ambiguous, informal ties to Taiwan is confusing and potentially dangerous; it obscures Beijing’s understanding of just how committed the United States is to Taiwan’s defense and self-determination.

Recognition would bring stability and certainty, thus actually lowering the risks that Beijing will misinterpret the U.S. position and threaten or actually commence military action to regain Taiwan. Extending diplomatic recognition would no more prejudice the U.S.’ “one China” policy (itself an exercise in confusion and ambiguity) or the ultimate issue of reunification than did U.S. recognition of the two Germanys during the Cold War.

The really scary thing is that Bolton is so deluded, he actually thinks this is somehow a good idea. He somehow doesn’t see that the status quo, while awkward, keeps the region pretty safe. While there is occasional saber-rattling out of Beijing, it seems to be primarily for domestic consumption. It makes me wonder if he is actually trying to create a pretext for war with China, because otherwise it is hard to imagine how such a smart man could be so utterly stupid.

The other really scary thing is that Bolton’s analysis of the situation is actually pretty sharp through most of the article. He carefully argues that the overwhelming majority of Taiwanese support the status quo, and that the independence movement is a small minority, even with Chen Shui-bian having just been in office. And yet despite his general understanding of much of the situation, his conclusions make absolutely no sense. He argues for US official diplomatic recognition after saying:

Many in Europe and the U.S. have misinterpreted what Ma’s victory, combined with an earlier Nationalist Party win in national legislative elections, means for Taiwan’s future. It does not mean that Taiwan is shifting from pursuing independence from China to its very opposite, reunification with the mainland. Quite the contrary. Certainly, many Nationalists do hope for ultimate reunification. But Ta1wan’s political life is far more complicated than the simplistic dichotomy in many Western media reports.

Over the last several decades, there has been remarkable stability in the center of Taiwan’s politics. Faced with the options of reunification, independence or continuation of the status quo, substantial majorities of Taiwanese have chosen the status quo, at least for the foreseeable future. That status quo is that the island is a state — the Republic of China on Taiwan — that meets all the key customary international law criteria: a responsible government, a defined territory and a stable population.

In a 2007 survey of public opinion in Taiwan by Taipei’s Mainland Affairs Council, 81.5% of respondents said they supported maintaining the status quo while deciding on reunification or independence at an unspecified future date. Only 10.2% wanted independence “as soon as possible,” and only 2.2% wanted reunification “as soon as possible.”

I don’t see how his argument lines up at all.

This is the same kind of arrogance that has gotten us into trouble elsewhere in the world. People thought that Iraqis would be delighted to have American occupiers because, to paraphrase Keith Hernandez, “We’re America.” As we all know it did not quite work out that way. Similarly Bolton thinks that the US is so singularly powerful that China will be utterly impotent to counteract such a move by the US.

China will not like this turn of events, but inevitably it will have little choice but to accept dual recognition. Now more than ever, the United States — and Europe and Japan — must be assertive in supporting a strengthening democracy in Taiwan.

Why now more than ever? In the piece he seems to be saying that it is particularly critical now because Taiwan’s economy is growing more slowly than other parts of Asia (although he concedes it is barreling ahead at 5.7%). That seems like a pretty good pace, especially considering that Taiwan’s economy is much more in line with South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan than Mainland China’s, which is far less developed overall, even today.

So at a time when the US economy is verging on a crisis, and Iraq and Afghanistan are stuck in quagmire, how could it possibly make sense to manufacture an international crisis where there isn’t one? Aren’t there enough problems in the world that the neocons don’t need to invent one? Unless they are trying to invent a war that some argue the neocons were originally hoping for before the events of September 11, 2001. Don’t believe me? Maybe you’ll believe this:

The same top Bush administration neoconservatives who leap-frogged Washington’s foreign policy establishment to topple Saddam Hussein nearly pulled off a similar coup in U.S.-China relations—creating the potential of a nuclear war over Taiwan, a top aide to former Secretary of State Colin Powell says.

Lawrence B. Wilkerson, the U.S. Army colonel who was Powell’s chief of staff through two administrations, said in little-noted remarks early last month that “neocons” in the top rungs of the administration quietly encouraged Taiwanese politicians to move toward a declaration of independence from mainland China — an act that the communist regime has repeatedly warned would provoke a military strike.

This is something for every American to consider when they enter the voting booth this fall.

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