Lunar Calendar Means Cool Olympic Weather
As it turns out, concerns that Beijing will be brutally hot this August during the Olympics are completely false. You see, temperatures and humidity both begin to fall one week into the 8th month, according to Guo Liwen, head of the Beijing Meteorological Bureau. What a lucky coincidence then that the Olympics are set to begin on the 8th, right in the middle of the city’s massive Autumn temperature dip.
Most people are unaware that temperatures are quite comfortable in Beijing in mid to late August, but that’s exactly the case. I read it in a Xinhua report that quotes the head of the Beijing Mateorological Bureau! Here’s a taste of it:
The possibility is only 0.4 percent for Beijing to undergo weathers above 35 degrees centigrade [95 Fahrenheit] during the 2008 Olympics in August, and the Beijing meteorological bureau forecasts the average temperature is about 24.9 degrees centigrade [76.8 Fahrenheit]in that period.
Guo Liwen, head of the bureau’s climate center told Xinhua that records in the last 30 years showed that Beijing’s average temperature in August is 24.9 degrees centigrade, relatively genial weather for the athletes…
Guo also said that the temperature and humidity in Beijing will decline gradually after August 7, the start of autumn in China’s traditional lunar calendar. Autumn is Beijing’s best time of the year.
So, if you’re paying attention, fall is the best time of the year to visit Beijing. True. August 7 is the beginning of fall according to the lunar calendar. Presumably true. August is the middle of fall and the best time to visit Beijing. Uhhh…false.
Apparently Mr. Guo is unaware of recent scientific breakthroughs, specifically that earth revolves around the sun. The consequences of this are far-ranging, including (1) Life can exist. (2) We get sunlight. Everyday. (3) August 8th is not the fall!
Sometimes I wonder if Beijing officials are aware of the vast resources available to us. True, they’ve blocked Wikipedia, but apparently there are other sources of information. For example, amazingly, people actual keep records of temperatures. I know, hard to imagine. For example, I was able find data from the good folks at the University of Dayton for the average temperatures of each day between August 8 and August 25, 2007. According to the solar calendar, that is the most recent year.
Last year, in the second and third weeks of August the average temperature was 82.2 degrees Fahrenheit, or 27.9 Centigrade. These are average temperatures, which includes night time. True I couldn’t find high temperatures for each day in that time frame, but I was living here, and it was ridiculously hot. I can assure Mr. Guo that August in Beijing does not provide “relatively genial weather for…athletes.” And the hottest day that I included was the last one, indicating that temperatures were cooling really gradually.
But surely that was dry heat, you say. Interesting you asked that. According to the only part of the BBC’s website accessible from China, the “discomfort from humidity” is “high” in August. In fact, the average reading in August is higher than any other month of the year in Beijing. It’s probably all in the first seven days though, so athletes, worry not.
The bureau also pointed out that “the “heat index” of the Beijing Olympics is at the same level with Barcelona and better than that of Atlanta and Athens.” Are they aware that Georgia and Greece are two of the most horrible places to spend a mid-August day taking a jog? That’s like bragging about having a murder rate comparable to Baltimore’s.
But all of this is just talk. I am willing to put my money where my mouth is. Mr. Guo I will bet you RMB1000 that the temperature in Beijing reaches 35 Centigrade during the Olympic this summer. That means you only have a 0.4 percent chance of losing. Seems like easy money to me.
One caveat: we’re not using your bureau’s readings.
Share This
syz responds:
Posted: March 6th, 2008 at 9:23 pm →
I’m disgusted that you’ve brought your occidental prejudices to this analysis. What does a Westerner know about August, anyway? Your naïve notions of time and season cannot hold a straw to the infinity of the lunar calendar. And what temperature scale do you think we’re using here? Surely you don’t think that (Western hegemonizing) centigrade is the only legitimate measuring system out there. You’re just part of the objectivity-enamored, actual-record-loving, fact-fetishizing violent yellow mob that is focused on putting China in a box and closing the lid. I’ll match your bet and raise you ten-thousand-fold. When it’s snowing this August, we’ll see who laughs last.
Charles responds:
Posted: March 6th, 2008 at 10:41 pm →
here are beijing’s temps from last august (scroll down to the calendar view)
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/ZBAA/2007/8/8/MonthlyHistory.html
Hal Gore responds:
Posted: March 7th, 2008 at 11:12 am →
After looking at the link Charles posted, I dug a little further. Here is a list of temps at 8:00 p.m (sorry they didn’t have 8:08), and the high temps for the day for the last few years (in F and C).
2002
High 84.2/29.0
20:00 75.2/24.0
2003
High 75.2/24.0
20:00 71.6/22.4
2004
High 92/33
20:00 87/30
2005
High 84.2/29
20:00 82.4/
2006
High 90/32
20:00 85/30
2007
High 93.2/33.2
20:00 86/30
Using my Gore methodology, and you toss out 2004 because it doesn’t fit into what I want, you can clearly see there is an alarming rise in the temperatures when you look at the years 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007. Based on this and applying the ‘hockey stick’ graphing techniques, the latest Gore model suggests that on August 8, 2008, the high should be 97/35.8 and 20:00 should be around 92/33.
Aside: Shouldn’t the Olympics start at 08:08, and not 20:08? Also: using my own methodology and the correct tones for ba and ling, my dictionary roughly translates 8/8/08 into Bar/Bar/Quick/Bar (and make mine a Yanjing Draft, please!!)
(disclaimer: I did not factor in when ‘fall’ started in the previous years, but with global warming, it must be later and later every year before the temps must drop off, so it should reinforce my points.)
Thank you,
Hal Gore (the ‘H’ is silent)
Pappi responds:
Posted: March 7th, 2008 at 11:15 am →
Wouldn’t ignoring inconvenient data be the Bush method?
Hal responds:
Posted: March 7th, 2008 at 11:24 am →
Pappi,
Touche, you got me there! Three sides to every story (not the Extreme album I’m talking about!).
Hal (the ‘H’ is silent)
Peter Barnes responds:
Posted: March 7th, 2008 at 2:04 pm →
i know this is all in fun, but shouldn’t we all recognize that when dealing with the lunar calendar one should use the lunar year? with 2008 starting on [solar time] february 7 the eighth lunar month will start in the waining days of august and conclude in late september when even the memories of the olympics will start to have melted from the mind. and, i think everyone will agree that the seventh lunar month is VERY HOT and HUMID in beijing. the problem is the barbarians use of their calendar has THE GAMES occurring a month before they rightfully should. can’t blame the chinese authorities for that!!
Bobby responds:
Posted: March 7th, 2008 at 2:15 pm →
Right! Because the IOC chose 8-8-08. They always have the Olympics in August–except that Syndey was September. And Beijing is beautiful in September.
DOH!
Hehe responds:
Posted: March 7th, 2008 at 6:49 pm →
Josh,
Have a study of the Chinese Lunar Calendar a little bit before making a speech please. In fact, your term “lunar calendar” is half right, half wrong.
Josh responds:
Posted: March 7th, 2008 at 7:23 pm →
Hehe:
Please read the quote. It is not my term, it is his. As for when fall starts, I deferred to Mr. Guo’s knowledge. Not exactly sure which point you are challenging. I would be happy to explain myself if you are more specific.
You also seem to be missing the bigger picture: Mr. Guo is arguing that things will get cooler beginning on August 7th because of the Chinese lunar calendar. This appears to be wishful thinking.