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New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has not-so-privately been floating the idea of running for president as an independent. With the two races still fairly muddled, I thought it might be interesting to look at the circumstances that might facilitate him jumping in.

The first condition would seem to require at least one candidate with fairly high negatives. On the Democratic side, I would imagine Hillary qualifies. This is not just my own personal bias, there is a fair amount of data to back this up. On the Republican side, there is probably no one figure that would be specifically put in that category at this point, although Rudy is doing his best imitation of this disliked candidate.

In lieu of someone with currently high negatives, someone who would be easy to cast as far outside the mainstream would be fairly enticing. Mike Huckabee, for all of his charm and good nature, would qualify. I think this clip will prove my point, with my point being that Mike is, well, slightly nuts:

Then there’s Rudy. We’ll make a list of his negatives in terms of electability, not in terms of my own voting preferences. Some of these I actually find endearing, others indicate a parallel to Al Qaeda (style, not substance): thrice married, enjoys cross-dressing, donated to pro-choice groups, lived with a gay couple after publicly announcing he was leaving his wife before telling her, oversaw a police force that was accused of massive brutality (particularly in minority neighborhoods), strongest political ally was just indicted on more than a dozen counts, and finally, built the terrorist response center in World Trade Center even though everyone said it was a terrible choice. Oh, and he’s got a mean streak. I’d say he has a few vulnerabilities.

Fred Thompson? Wake him up before he go gos?

Mitt? Let’s just say he’s not the most consistent guy. I’d say Mormonism is least vulnerable area. Attacking a person’s religion, unless it has the word ’science’ in it, tends to come off as unseemly, even if a basic tenet is that Jesus is returning to Jackson, Missouri, really soon. As a Democrat, it is safe to say that I’m hoping this guy wins the nomination because the attack ads would be so obvious they wouldn’t even seem mean. Go Mitt Go!

That leaves McCain. This would be a tough one. Even though he’s actually very conservative, he has very good standing among independents, meaning it would be a nightmare match-up for Hillary. He’s a straight-talker, even if his talk if often completely wrong (for example: he was right that the US should have had more troops from the beginning, but it doesn’t change the fact that he thinks the war was a good idea. Also, his “bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran clip will be seen a million times, including below. Plus he has a real nasty streak. If you don’t believe me ’cause he just seems so nice, read this. However, it is very unlikely he would show that side. ) It’s also possible someone would run to his right, but Bloomberg has to decide by about March 1, and he certainly won’t know if Hunter, or someone of that ilk, would be siphoning votes from McCain by then. This would be a tough one for Mayor Mike.

But here’s the clip anyway:

Obama would be a disaster for the mayor, since he’s very popular among independents, and as of yet, has not had a highly partisan tone. I’m not sure what the rationale of Mike’s candidacy would be with the Illinois senator in the race.

So the way it breaks down, as I see it, is that Mike would run, and be a strong candidate, in any election that had neither McCain, nor Obama. In a Hillary-Romney-Bloomberg race, how does the mayor not win? That’s just how I see it, but then again, I voted for Mark Green against Bloomberg six years ago, so I’m not the world’s best prognosticator.

Would Bloomberg run and do well in the match-ups without Obama or McCain? I’m interested in hearing from people who are not me, since my opinions are strong and unwaivering on virtually everything.

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Tags: bloomberg, hillary, mccain, obama, rudy
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