Hillary Clinton is Howard Dean
A little more than a year ago I was working on a get out the vote effort in the Philadelphia. As we were going around the neighborhood I mentioned to a van full of young people that Hillary Clinton was the 2008 version of Howard Dean. The outrage around me was palpable. One person informed me that Obama was the new Howard Dean, and it suddenly dawned on me that most of the people around me had supported the candidate who had flamed out so dramatically. They thought I was insulting Dean, when in fact I was taking a shot at Hillary.
Hillary Clinton is Howard Dean. True, on style and support base, they are as different as night and day. Clinton is the establishment candidate, while Dean was the curiosity. But that’s not where I saw the similarity. To me, where Clinton and Dean align so closely is that most people never wanted them to win. In fact, most Democrats wanted anyone but them to win. With Dean they chose the guy they figured looked the most presidential, John Kerry, the war vet. This year, Iowans anyway, picked the one who was most inspiring. However, in both cases they seemed to running away from the front runners as much as to the victors.
Now I know what you’re thinking, the conventional wisdom is that Obama is the Kenyan-Hawaiian Robert Kennedy. And maybe he is. But the other thing I can tell you is that if the front-runner had been someone people liked, even a little, the stories would have been written a lot differently (namely that Obama would make a great VP).
None of this is to say that Obama is not the best candidate out there (or that Hillary can’t come back). I am still convinced that four years ago Kerry was the best Democrat out there, even if he has an irritating penchant to say and do dumb things. This year I’m sure that it is Obama (Biden is the best on policy, but being in the Senate for so long with John Kerry seems to have rubbed off on him). I’m happy that people are running away from Hillary, because no one needs four more years of that (much less eight). But before you get too caught up in the rhetoric around the politics of hope, remember that the junior Senator from Illinois owes as much to the Dean factor, as the Obama one.
And if you’re wondering, whom I went to see speak at a rally that day outside Philadelphia, 48 hours before the Democrats took back the House and Senate, it was Nancy Pelosi, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, and a skinny guy with big ears from Chicago. After the speech I went outside and bought a t-shirt. On the front it read “Obama ‘08″ with a giant “Coming Soon” stamped in red across the front.
Will Lewis responds:
Posted: January 7th, 2008 at 9:59 pm →
I can’t wait until we get to see Hilary jump up on the stage and give her version of the Dean yell. Based on her campaign, I’m guessing it happens the day before Super Duper Tuesday.
Janus responds:
Posted: January 8th, 2008 at 12:52 am →
I’m a conservative type of person who nevertheless feels a strong, almost magical pull towards Obama. Or maybe it’s an instinctive revulsion away from Hillary…time shall tell. I will be watching from my bunker in University City.
Chuck responds:
Posted: January 8th, 2008 at 9:32 pm →
This is the most preposterous entry you’ve managed to defecate onto this blog. Your thesis is Hillary Clinton is Howard Dean, because people don’t want them to win. If you are going to equate people like this, you have to have a more compelling series of parallels than that. You might as well say “Hillary Clinton is this year’s Steve Forbes.” Ｍｙ ｈｅａｄ ｈｕｒｔｓ ａｆｔｅｒ ｒｅａｄｉｎｇ ｔｈｉｓ ｒａｍｂｌｉｎｇ ｐｉｅｃｅ．
Ｙｏｕ ａｒｅ Ｇｅｏｒｇｅ Ｗ． Ｂｕｓｈ， ｂｅｃａｕｓｅ ｙｏｕ ｎｅｅｄ ｍｏｒｅ ｎａｐｓ．
Josh responds:
Posted: January 8th, 2008 at 10:34 pm →
And Chuck, my friend from college, introduces himself to everyone.
Chuck, the point is that voters are looking for someone to run toward because they are unhappy with the front runner. It is not simply that they do not like one candidate (a la Teve Torbs).
Chuck responds:
Posted: January 9th, 2008 at 2:32 am →
I actually still totally disagree. Most democratic voters I have heard interviewed in Iowa and NH are describing “an embarassment of riches”, rather than running away from an unlikeable front-runner. Hillary Clinton is NOT Howard Dean.
Josh responds:
Posted: January 9th, 2008 at 7:57 am →
@Chuck
Fair enough, although I always felt like the pundits were telling Dems they had a great field more than people really thought it. I think they’re just so happy Bush will be out that anyone would look good.
However, think about this: Heavy front-running favorite for months nose-dives at the end and finishes in 3rd place behind John Edwards’ second place.
Is that Dean or Hillary?
Eric responds:
Posted: January 13th, 2008 at 7:44 am →
i do have to say that most surveys indicate that democrats overwhelmingly support hillary clinton. independents on the other hand support obama. the base of the democratic party, middle to lower-middle-class whites are still overwhelmingly clinton-esque, and dare i say it, racist. although independents are coming out in droves this year. and general elections are decided by independents rather than partisans. so democrats would be smarter to choose obama.
personally, i favor clinton though.